Is this the end of Labour in Wales?

With Labour’s grip on Wales weakening, SC Cook examines the social and political forces behind its declining support and how new movements might shape the future.

In his now ubiquitous folk song ‘Yma O Hyd’, Dafydd Iwan proclaims that in spite of ‘Maggie [Thatcher] and her crew,’ the people of Wales will be here until the end of time. For over 100 years, the Labour Party in Wales could be forgiven for thinking that they too would enjoy such longevity. Because ‘despite everyone and everything,’ as the chorus goes, they have retained some form of political dominance over the country since the beginning of the last century. But if the opinion polls ring true, the party’s period of dominance – thought by some to be the longest of any single party in Europe – could come crashing down. 

In the latest survey of voter intention ahead of next year’s Welsh Parliament (Senedd) elections, Labour are way down in third place with just 18 per cent of the vote. Plaid Cymru are in second with 27 per cent and Reform are in front with 29 per cent. The Tories are on just 11 per cent whilst the Greens and Lib Dems are on seven per cent. If this were replicated in 2026, Labour would receive only 22 per cent of parliamentary seats in Wales – a historic defeat. Thrown into this mix we now have the exciting prospect of a new party on the left and an open question as to whether this could make an impact at the Senedd elections. So how did we get here, what are the implications for the future and what can socialists do about it? 

How did we get here

The short answer is not different to the rest of Britain, much of Europe or North America. The onward march of neoliberal capitalism has led to stagnating wages, expensive housing and the gutting of town centres and community spaces. Writing in the Financial Times recently, the economist Martin Wolf was forced to concede this very point: 

According to the Living Standards Review 2025 from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, real disposable income per head rose by just 14 per cent between the third quarters of 2007 and 2024: it had risen 48 per cent between the third quarters of 1990 and 2007.

He goes on to say that there ‘must be recognition that the Thatcher experiment failed: it did not transform the underlying performance of the economy for the better. This must now be admitted.’ But Thatcherism also had a very specific effect in Wales which led not only to the loss of good jobs and stable livelihoods through the closure of coal mines and other industrial powerhouses, but had long term political effects as well. 

At a British level, whilst the Tories were in government for 14 years, Labour profited from being the main opposition. At the level of the Welsh Government, however, Labour have been in power over that same period and have acted as administrators of austerity and managers of decline. This duality has been reflected in voting trends, with Labour usually performing better in Wales at a General Election than it does in a Senedd Election. 

Now Labour are in government in both Cardiff and Westminster and the party is rightly a focal point for people’s anger and dissatisfaction with politics. Jo Stevens, the Secretary of State for Wales, likes to say that having two Labour administrations benefits people in Wales. But when one of Keir Starmer’s first acts was to take winter fuel payments off thousands of pensioners, among other things, it’s a claim that draws ridicule more than anything else. 

In fact Rachel Reeves’ programme of cuts to some of the most vulnerable groups of people have been so unpopular in Wales that Eluned Morgan, Labour’s First Minister, has felt forced to distance herself from them. But reality trumps Morgan’s political manoeuvring. It’s hard to pinpoint a specific policy that has caused Labour to slump in the polls, but most cuts in public services – whether it be the closure of a high school or the loss of a leisure centre – have been carried out by Labour administrations. 

Go to most towns in Wales’ electorally important rust belt where Labour have been dominant and you’ll hear a familiar story of no opportunities for young people, badly paid jobs, poor housing, poverty and related health issues such as depression and addiction. Any party that presides over this will eventually suffer, and to be truthful it’s a wonder Labour have held on for so long in Wales. It looked like their demise might arrive after the 2015 election defeat, but the party was revived under Corbyn in 2017 before falling back again as the movement retreated in 2019. Since then, hatred of the Tories kept Labour’s electoral prospects going. This has now evaporated. 

Our analysis cannot simply be confined to economics, however. Another key reason behind Labour’s faltering support is undeniably the fact of Israel’s genocide in Gaza. This is often written out of political analysis, especially in Wales, but to do so belies a gross misunderstanding of the situation. The stunning number of protests and direct actions aimed at stopping the mass murder of Palestinians represents one of the biggest political movements ever seen in Wales. The Welsh Labour government, the British government and individual Labour MPs have all been a target for people’s total disgust at what Israel has been allowed to get away with by Keir Starmer.

It cannot be discounted how much this has led to scores of voters feeling sick to the stomach at the idea of ever voting Labour again. After all, this is a party led by a man who condoned Israeli war crimes against Palestinians on live radio, and despite this still enjoys huge backing from almost every Labour MP in Wales. Many look at Labour in any guise and rightly say, Ych a fi! 

On top of all this sits a general malaise at the lack of democratic accountability in politics and society at large. A belief which is backed up constantly through people’s own reality of a system that is designed to make life harder and more stressful. There have been two main beneficiaries of Labour’s decline. On the left, Plaid Cymru have given voice in the Senedd to the pro-Palestinian movement as well as issues such as free school meals, strikes by public sector workers and opposition to austerity. 

On the right, the other main beneficiary is clearly Reform, who receive an outsized amount of media attention that Plaid Cymru or anyone else struggle to compete with. But it cannot all be put down to this. Farage has successfully mined not just anti-establishment sentiment, but also the deep well of anti-Thatcherism which still exists in large parts of Wales. He has mooted policies such as nationalisation of steel and pursued corrupt water bosses that speak to the very real feeling that life and work had more dignity before the onset of neoliberalism. And it’s not as if we haven’t seen this rupture coming, either. All bar two constituencies in Wales voted to leave the EU despite Plaid Cymru and Labour backing Remain. 

What does this mean for the future?

In an electoral sense, the most likely outcome is that Labour will come third in next year’s elections behind Plaid Cymru and Reform, and either one of those parties could win the popular vote. This makes the most likely outcome (on current polling at least) a Plaid – Labour coalition or some kind or arrangement. 

Such a scenario may be welcomed by some on the left and trade union movement in Wales, who might think that Plaid Cymru will act as a left wing pressure on Labour and a coalition would at least keep Reform out of government. But this is far too complacent. If Reform won the popular vote or came a close second, it would represent an historic moment in Welsh politics and not in a good way. Never before would a party on the far right have commanded such a position among the electorate. If they win but do not command a majority of seats, then the party would operate in opposition whilst claiming that the true will of the people had been thwarted by the Welsh political elite. This would be politically explosive, with Reform in both Wales and England presenting themselves as the political insurgents against a discredited establishment. This would in turn bolster forces to the right of Farage such as the fascist Tommy Robinson, and leave more areas open to the kind of racist mobilisations we saw last summer or more recently in Epping. 

And whilst Plaid Cymru would likely take a harder approach against the British Labour government and could be pushed into attacking it from the left, the party’s approach at local government teaches us not to get too carried away with this idea. Plaid have implemented damaging cuts just as Labour have done, and even support the militarist logic of increasing army spending. Whether Plaid Cymru would use its position to genuinely push for independence is also far from guaranteed, especially if it was in a coalition with Labour. 

The Welsh independence movement could clearly grow in this scenario, but it would require breaking from its current malaise and narrow focus. The independence cause exploded in 2020/21, pushed forward by opposition to Boris Johnson’s Tory government and the desire for radical change after the collapse of Corbynism. However, a failure to capitalise on this breakthrough and an internal crisis weakened the left in the movement and since then the cause has struggled to have the same impact despite support for independence still being relatively high. 

All of the above may also be affected by the existence of a new electoral force headed by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, which could electrify a large section of the electorate and take votes from all other parties if it stands candidates next year. 

What can socialists do about it? 

Whatever happens, there is undoubtedly a need for an independent left in Wales. For anyone who has been hoping for this, the past week has been incredibly exciting after Jeremy Corbyn announced the first steps in creating this organisation. At time of writing, around a quarter a million people have already signed up to be involved in this new left party within 24 hours. It’s safe to say that thousands of these sign ups will have been in Wales, instantly becoming a force with huge political potential and mass involvement. 

There have already been moves underway at building a new political movement on the left. Former Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood and the ex Labour MP Beth Winter – two of Wales’ most prominent socialists of the past decade – have both recently announced their involvement in the eco-socialist, pro-Independence Cymru’n Codi (Cymru Rising) project. 

It’s early days, but many socialists will instinctively want maximum unity around a new party. Already Beth Winter, along with Mark Serwotka, have gotten behind the new party project. There will of course be challenges around how different groupings work together, particularly around the issue of Welsh independence, but these should not be allowed to derail the potential of a new party with significant backing. We should also note Corbyn’s desire for ‘autonomy’ for the new party’s members in Wales and Scotland. 

People who are desperate for a genuine alternative to both Faragism and Starmerism will look to a formation that they believe can succeed as quickly as possible. Given the profile of both Corbyn and Sultana, and the media attention their new party would receive, it will likely be seen as the most credible thing on offer. Will it stand candidates at the Senedd elections next year. Given the crisis in Welsh politics highlighted above and the clear threat from the far right, many people will say: why not? 

Clearly it will also be vitally important to relate to the huge pro-Palestine movement in Wales, which despite its size is less politically cohesive. For any electoral project on the left, seeking to learn from the electoral impact the movement had through the Muslim Vote campaign at the last election (something I’ve written more on here) is crucial. And if the socialist Zack Polanski wins the leadership of the Green Party, the party is likely to increase their support in certain areas and push radical left politics into a broader spectrum of society. 

For socialists in Wales in general, the task will not only be to welcome these new developments but to ensure that its politics are unwaveringly anti-systemic. The defeat of Corbynism and by extension the left occurred through a failure to define itself against a failed system. It allowed itself to be bullied by the Labour party machine and rotten influence of the British media, particularly over the issue of Palestine. We are now in a different era. The bravery of the Palestinian movement has taught us all a vital lesson in political courage. These should be taken seriously so the mistakes of the past are not repeated again.